Wednesday, February 17, 2010

CO2 Emissions Missing Link to Global Warming

We've continuously increased CO2 emissions without fail for the past 2 centuries, yet it has had no noticeable effect on the temperature measurements collected. We have not seen an acceleration in warming.

Here are the trends and significances for each period:
Period Length Trend
(Degrees C per decade) Significance
1860-1880 21 0.163 Yes
1910-1940 31 0.15 Yes
1975-1998 24 0.166 Yes
1975-2009 35 0.161 Yes

We've had a 150 year period now where CO2 emissions have risen exponentially from 1860 levels. Where is the similar exponential growth in higher temperatures? The fact that we can increase CO2 emissions from 2002 and yet show a drop in temperatures implies that CO2 emissions are not the primary driver of warming, perhaps not even a minor factor. Those who argue for a delayed effect must also answer why we haven't seen such an effect after 150 years. Shouldn't we have seen exponential rises in temperature by now that track CO2 emissions? Why haven't we? These are legitimate questions that need to be answered. More failed models that wrongly predict future temperatures are not what's needed. And consistent with the scientific method, models that have shown themselves to be seriously out-of-line with data time and time again are discredited and new models based on the same old ones receive little regard until they fit in line with data.

It is not the skeptics that are unscientific, it is those who put up these models that have proven themselves to be wrong time and time again. There should be zero weight given to these false models by anyone claiming to be unbiased and scientific, this is the standard approach used in every scientific field from biology to physics.

It is just not understandable how people can continue to claim CO2 is a primary driver when the 150 year data clearly shows otherwise. They have to first explain why they were wrong to be taken seriously, and that's just a first step. Otherwise, the theories that fit in with the data, namely that CO2 is a lagging indicator and is not a primary driver of warming, should be the mainstream established theory that all people and policy makers adhere to.

1 comment:

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